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Article
Publication date: 23 November 2023

Bikramaditya Ghosh, Mariya Gubareva, Noshaba Zulfiqar and Ahmed Bossman

The authors target the interrelationships between non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance (DeFi) and carbon allowances (CA) markets during 2021–2023. The recent shift of…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors target the interrelationships between non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance (DeFi) and carbon allowances (CA) markets during 2021–2023. The recent shift of crypto and DeFi miners from China (the People's Republic of China, PRC) green hydro energy to dirty fuel energies elsewhere induces investments in carbon offsetting instruments; this is a backdrop to the authors’ investigation.

Design/methodology/approach

The quantile vector autoregression (VAR) approach is employed to examine extreme-quantile-connectedness and spillovers among the NFT Index (NFTI), DeFi Pulse Index (DPI), KraneShares Global Carbon Strategy ETF price (KRBN) and the Solactive Carbon Emission Allowances Rolling Futures Total Return Index (SOLCARBT).

Findings

At bull markets, DPI is the only consistent net shock transmitter as NFTI transmits innovations only at the most extreme quantile. At bear markets, KRBN and SOLCARBT are net shock transmitters, while NFTI is the only consistent net shock receiver. The receiver-transmitter roles change as a function of the market conditions. The increases in the relative tail dependence correspond to the stress events, which make systemic connectedness augment, turning market-specific idiosyncratic considerations less relevant.

Originality/value

The shift of digital asset miners from the PRC has resulted in excessive fuel energy consumption and aggravated environmental consequences regarding NFTs and DeFi mining. Although there exist numerous studies dedicated to CA trading and its role in carbon print reduction, the direct nexus between NFT, DeFi and CA has never been addressed in the literature. The originality of the authors’ research consists in bridging this void. Results are valuable for portfolio managers in bull and bear markets, as the authors show that connectedness is more intense under such conditions.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 September 2019

Mariya Gubareva

The aim of this research is twofold. First, we study average levels of liquidity for long-run through-the-cycle periods, which potentially allow eliminating procyclicality from…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this research is twofold. First, we study average levels of liquidity for long-run through-the-cycle periods, which potentially allow eliminating procyclicality from risk parameters used for expected credit-loss calculations. Second, we investigate to what extent the relative illiquidity of individual credit default swap (CDS) contracts affects their spreads in comparison with the respective CDS indices.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the iTraxx Europe CDS index covering European firms and the CDX North America CDS index covering US firms, as well as on individual CDS transactions involving the reference entities constituting these two benchmark indices, we investigate the excess liquidity premia in spreads of the single-name CDS contracts over the spreads of the iTraxx and CDX indices over 2007-2017.

Findings

First, single-name CDS excess liquidity premia depend on CDS contract maturity. Second, the long-run average spread of a benchmark index may stay as low as three-fourths of the respective long-run average of the mean of the single-name CDS spreads, meaning that the excess liquidity premium may be as high as one-fourth of the firm-specific CDS spread. Third, the term structure of the excess liquidity differs between the Europe and North America geographies. Fourth, on average, the excess liquidity premia in the single-name CDS spreads over the respective CDS indices diminish with increasing maturities of CDS contracts.

Originality/value

No previous research addresses differences between the liquidity component in a benchmark CDS index spreads and the mean spread averaged across the constituents of the index. Our work fills this gap.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2017

Mariya Gubareva and Maria Rosa Borges

The purpose of this paper is to study connections between interest rate risk and credit risk and investigate the inter-risk diversification benefit due to the joint consideration…

1377

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study connections between interest rate risk and credit risk and investigate the inter-risk diversification benefit due to the joint consideration of these risks in the banking book containing sovereign debt.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper develops the historical derivative-based value at risk (VaR) for assessing the downside risk of a sovereign debt portfolio through the integrated treatment of interest rate and credit risks. The credit default swaps spreads and the fixed-leg rates of interest rate swap are used as proxies for credit risk and interest rate risk, respectively.

Findings

The proposed methodology is applied to the decade-long history of emerging markets sovereign debt. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the diversified VaR benefits from imperfect correlation between the risk factors. Sovereign risks of non-core emu states and oil producing countries are discussed through the prism of VaR metrics.

Practical implications

The proposed approach offers a clue for improving risk management in regards to banking books containing government bonds. It could be applied to access the riskiness of investment portfolios containing the wider spectrum of assets beyond the sovereign debt. The approach represents a useful tool for investigating interest rate and credit risk interrelation.

Originality/value

The proposed enhancement of the traditional historical VaR is twofold: usage of derivative instruments’ quotes and simultaneous consideration of the interest rate and credit risk factors to construct the hypothetical liquidity-free bond yield, which allows to distil liquidity premium.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 18 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2021

Mariya Gubareva

The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit rate dynamics during 2014–2020, attempting to answer how deep could be cut…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit rate dynamics during 2014–2020, attempting to answer how deep could be cut further this rate without causing persistent yield curve inversions (YCI), i.e. lower yields for longer terms. It addresses the sustainability of the traditional banking and shows that inverted yield curves would require changing the banking-as-usual model to the government-guaranteed long-term-borrowing coupled with short-term-lending. This research poses the question of whether the banking sector should become a public utility.

Design/methodology/approach

The future scenarios of negative interest rate (NIR) behavior are modeled seeking to increase the understanding of NIR environment. Using an event-study design, empirical analyses of the ECB deposit rate cuts on the Euro Over-Night Index Average rates is performed at different maturities.

Findings

This study finds that, starting from the lower limit of 80 basis points below zero, the ECB deposit rate is likely to result in complete YCIs.

Social implications

This paper evidences that moving rates into a more negative territory is likely to be completely counterproductive for banking industry, implying that banking at such conditions would become heavily dependent on governmental support. The results shed light on the interdependence of the banking business, financial monetary policy and welfare of the society, providing policymakers with empirically defined milestones for policy implementations.

Originality/value

This paper clarifies the impact of the ECB deposit rate on the overall shape of yield curves. The novelty of this research resides in investigation of YCI by simulating NIR dynamics.

Article
Publication date: 3 June 2021

Mariya Gubareva

This paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning…

1148

Abstract

Purpose

This paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning under the IFRS 9.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper develops the two-step methodology. Calibrating the Credit Default Swap (CDS)-implied default probabilities to the through-the-cycle default frequencies provides average weights of default component in the spread for each forward term. Then, the impairment provisions are calculated for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors by distilling their pure default-risk term-structures from the respective term-structures of spreads. This research demonstrates how to estimate credit impairment allowances compliant with IFRS 9 framework.

Findings

This study finds that for both investment grade and high yield exposures, the weights of default component in the credit spreads always remain inferior to 33%. The research's outcomes contrast with several previous results stating that the default risk premium accounts at least for 40% of CDS spreads. The proposed methodology is applied to calculate IFRS 9 compliant provisions for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors.

Research limitations/implications

Many issuers are not covered by individual Bloomberg valuation curves. However, the way to overcome this limitation is proposed.

Practical implications

The proposed approach offers a clue for a better alignment of accounting practices, financial regulation and credit risk management, using expected loss metrics across diverse silos inside organizations. It encourages adopting the proposed methodology, illustrating its application to a set of bond exposures.

Originality/value

No previous research addresses impairment provisioning employing Bloomberg valuation curves. The study fills this gap.

Book part
Publication date: 29 December 2016

Mariya Gubareva and Maria Rosa Borges

This chapter reassesses the economics of interest rate risk management in light of the global financial crisis by developing a derivative-based integrated treatment of interest…

Abstract

This chapter reassesses the economics of interest rate risk management in light of the global financial crisis by developing a derivative-based integrated treatment of interest rate and credit risk interrelation. The decade-long historical data on credit default swap spreads and interest rate swap rates are used as proxy measures for credit risk and interest rate risk, respectively. An elasticity of interest rate risk and credit risk, considered a function of the business cycle phases, maturity of instruments, economic sector, creditworthiness, and other macroeconomic parameters, is investigated for optimizing economic capital. This chapter sheds light on how financial institutions may address hedge strategies against downside risks implementing the proposed derivative-based integrated treatment of interest rate and credit risk assessment allowing for optimization of interest rate swap contracts. The developed framework of integrated interest rate and credit risk management is of special importance for emerging markets heavily dependent on foreign capital as it potentially allows emerging market banks to improve risk management practices in terms of capital adequacy and Basel III rules. Analyzing diversification versus compounding effects, it allows enhancing financial stability through jointly optimizing Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 economic capital.

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 29 December 2016

Abstract

Details

Risk Management in Emerging Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-451-8

Book part
Publication date: 28 September 2023

Georgiana Ioana Tircovnicu and Camelia-Daniela Hategan

The need for an efficient enterprise risk management (ERM) has never been greater than today when organisations face complex and interconnected risks targeting their business…

Abstract

The need for an efficient enterprise risk management (ERM) has never been greater than today when organisations face complex and interconnected risks targeting their business models. Macroeconomics and geopolitical uncertainties, digital transformations of industries and sectors, cybersecurity, and climate change, among other trends, present significant uncertainties. This article aims to analyse the scientific papers on research specific to ERM and review the links between the researched area and market or corporate governance topics. Risk management is underdeveloped in many organisations; the current standard for risk management is a reactive approach. It is usually treated in isolation rather than as a core competency and a strategic asset. As a result, risk management processes are ineffective and seen as adding value to decision-making and responding to uncertainties. Based on the literature, the scope is to set up the framework for future research on ERM by building a bibliometric analysis and examining articles collected from the Web of Science Core Collection database. The study identified the essential research on this topic based on the citations of the papers and the author’s countries with the highest number of publications and citations. VOSviewer software analysed the ERM system based on keywords, citations, geographical distribution, and authorships. The research proves a strong connection between the ERM and corporate governance topics considering the stage where most countries are regarding this subject.

Details

Digital Transformation, Strategic Resilience, Cyber Security and Risk Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-254-4

Keywords

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